The Curious Case of Chelsea So Far This Season
An Analysis of the Numbers Behind Chelsea’s Season
On July 1, 2023, Chelsea appointed Argentinian head coach Mauricio Pochettino, a coach who had coached city rivals Tottenham, to help turn the club’s fortunes around. The Argentine became Chelsea’s third head coach within the last year and a fourth since sacking fan favorite Thomas Tuchel, and it was evident from the start that he had to hit the ground running as soon as possible.
Pochettino’s high-intensity pressing style, coupled with a track record of building functional teams and experience in the Premier League, sparked some excitement among Chelsea fans this summer as they came off the back of a dreadful season where they managed 11 wins, 11 draws, and 16 defeats, scoring 38 goals and conceding 47 in 38 games last season, settling for a 12th-place finish.
The Blues are currently 12th on the Premier League table after 4 games played with a paltry return of 4 points out of 12, with 5 goals scored and 5 conceded and only one win out of the 4 games so far this season. For a club that spent a staggering £434.5m, a division high, the return in terms of performances has not been impressive… or has it?
To contextualize Chelsea’s situation, it is worth noting that, in their last 42 league games stretching to the start of last season, the Blues have picked up 12 wins, 12 draws, and 18 defeats. That is a meager 48 out of 128 points, or 37.5% of points picked up.
Compare that same run to last season’s top 4, a position Chelsea are aiming for, and the story is completely different. Manchester City, last season’s Premier League champions, have picked up 100 of the 126 available points (79.4%) out of the same 42 games with 32 wins, 5 draws, and 5 defeats. Arsenal have collected 94 out of 126 points (74.6%), recording 29 wins, 7 draws, and 6 defeats. Manchester United also won 81 of the 126 available points (64.3%) with 25 wins, 6 draws, and 11 defeats. Newcastle, the least impressive of the top 4, won 74 of the 126 available points, winning 20, drawing 14, and losing eight games in the process.
The disparity in these figures is quite striking and goes to show you the extent to which Chelsea have underperformed since last season. And, given their slow start this season, there is a creeping feeling that their previous mediocre performances might creep into this campaign, a situation that should not be happening given the caliber of players they have, the investment they’ve made, and the experienced coach they've hired.
We will now take a deeper dive into the figures to investigate trends in Chelsea’s game, but only for the opening four league games they have played so far this season.
The analysis and plots were made with R and Python, with data scraped from Understat and FBREF to use relevant data to assess Chelsea’s season so far. The code used for this article can be found here. You can find my Twitter here if you want to further the conversation!
After four games this season, Chelsea has maintained the highest average possession rate, precisely at 70.5%. This places them ahead of Manchester City (67.8%), Brighton (64.3%), Arsenal (64.3%), and Tottenham (58.3%) — the next four teams with the highest average possession after the initial four games. This suggests a strong inclination toward ball retention, a strategy seemingly favored by Mauricio Pochettino so far this season. Given the number of technically secure players in the team like Enzo Fernández and Thiago Silva, a strong target man in Nicolas Jackson to link play, hardworking midfielders in Connor Gallagher and Moisés Caicedo to do the hard yards and win the ball back to sustain pressure, and runners like Raheem Sterling and Ben Chilwell to help them stretch teams, it should be an ideal situation on paper. In their games this season, we have seen some good approach play from the Blues, but have they just been sterile in possession? Let's find out!
Chelsea have in fact not just been prolific at ball retention; in fact, they have also attempted and completed the second most passes in the league after Manchester City (2595/2999 passes) and made the most touches and live touches in the Premier League.
They have also made the third-most progressive passes in the league: 226 progressive passes so far, and these passes have covered the second-most distance in the league. In terms of progressive passing distance, which FBREF describes as “Total distance, in yards, that completed passes travel towards the opponent's goal,” Chelsea top that metric with their progressive passes traveling the longest distance over the course of the first 4 games, 13,071 yards out of the 40,112 yards of their total passes, a metric in which they also rank second, indicating that Chelsea have shown that they are one of the most dangerous teams so far at finding their attackers consistently.
As if finding attackers from deep was not enough, the Blues have also recorded the highest number of carries among all teams in the league so far this season with 2350 carries, and they have also recorded the second-most progressive carries in the league with 114, behind city rivals Tottenham, who have recorded 115 progressive carries themselves. In terms of progressive carrying distance, Chelsea is second (6178 yards), behind Manchester City (6220 yards). They also top the league metric in terms of progressive carries into the final third, again ahead of Tottenham, Manchester City, Brighton, and Arsenal. Their players have been very dangerous at carrying the ball into dangerous positions, and combined with their progressive passing prowess, this has made Chelsea very difficult to keep at bay, and this has been evident so far in all four of their games this season.
The plot above shows us the four most progressive teams in the Premier League: Brighton, Arsenal, Chelsea, and Tottenham. Chelsea are ahead of both Manchester clubs in terms of all-round progressive play, just behind Arsenal and Brighton in progressive passing, and only second to Tottenham in terms of progressive carries.
PASSING BREAKDOWN
Chelsea have, as expected, completed the most short passes in the league so far this season, completing 1,407 out of 1,521 passes with an accuracy rate of 92.5%, the 3rd highest in the league. They have also attempted the third most medium range passes (between 15 and 30 yards), 944 out of 1,054 passes, with an accuracy rate of 89.6%, making them the 7th-best team in this metric in the league. The Blues also rank 7th for completed long passes with 156 long passes out of 248 long passes, a metric they rank 15th for, highlighting a preference for going short despite having a target man in Nicolas Jackson who has shown his combative physical style, aerial prowess, and hold-up play.
Chelsea are 8th, just above Liverpool in 9th, for total key passes completed, with 47 key passes that led directly to a shot at goal. They have also made the second-most passes into the final third with 198, just behind Arsenal, who have made 220 such passes. When it comes to passes into the penalty box in open play, Chelsea have made the third-most (56), behind Arsenal (63) and Brighton (62), respectively. Chelsea are also joint second in terms of total crosses made into the penalty area with 12 crosses, one behind Wolves, a metric that highlights Chelsea’s preference for finding attackers with crosses into dangerous positions in the penalty area. A cross from Enzo Fernández, which was poorly cleared by Liverpool’s Dominik Szoboszlai, led to Axel Disasi scoring Chelsea’s equalizer at the Bridge. There were also chances for Chelsea from crosses in that same game, with Reece James finding Jackson on one occasion, but the Gambian forward blazed his effort off-target. Sterling also almost found Jackson for a tap-in, but Liverpool’s Trent was on hand to avert what would have been a clear goalscoring opportunity. Against West Ham too, Chelsea’s equalizer came after West Ham failed to fully clear two successive crosses, allowing Carney Chukwuemeka to wriggle his way past Tomáš Souček to slot it past Alphonse Aréola. There were two assists that came from crosses against Luton: Gusto assisting Sterling, and Sterling also assisting Jackson for his first Chelsea league goal. All these highlight Chelsea’s prolificacy from crosses in and around the penalty box, a constant source of danger for them so far this season.
SHOTS AND GOALS
From our analysis of the aforementioned metrics, Chelsea are one of the top teams in possession, topping metrics in passing, chance creation, and possession. We have seen flashes of this quality in all their games so far this season: against Liverpool, especially against West Ham, Luton, and even against Nottingham Forest. It is also very interesting to note that Chelsea have outshot their opponents in every single game this season and also won on Expected goals (xG) in all these games.
Talking about shots, Chelsea are joint fourth with Manchester City in terms of the most number of shots fired in the league so far this season, with 66 shots so far this season, behind Brigton (82 shots) and Tottenham (73 shots) and ahead of Liverpool United and Arsenal. In terms of xG too, Chelsea have racked up the fourth-highest xG total with 8.3 expected goals so far this season. Brentford, Brighton, and Manchester top this metric with 9.7, 9.0, and 8.6 expected goals, respectively.
Chelsea has proven to be a high-volume shooting team, but let us scrutinize the metrics behind these shots. Chelsea are joint third for the highest number of shot-creating actions behind Brighton and Manchester City, averaging 30.50 shot-creating actions per 90 minutes. In terms of these shot-creating actions, the bulk of them are through take-ons; Chelsea have in fact completed the most take-ons that have led directly to a shot the most times in the league with 13 such take-ons. Given their high-volume possession approach, one would expect Chelsea to be the highest in terms of live, in-play passes that lead to shots, but that would be the wrong assumption. Chelsea are actually the 5th best team in terms of live passes that led directly to a shot with 85 of those passes, which puts them behind Brighton, Manchester City, Arsenal, and Tottenham with 116, 105, 95, and 89 of these passes, respectively. Not bad company, but an interesting insight to note is that for all their possession, they do not always convert their passing into shots but rely on other actions too, such as take-ons and crosses.
DEFENDING
Defensively, Chelsea have also been superb so far. They have conceded the third-lowest number of shots this season with 42, behind Manchester City and Arsenal, who have conceded only 25 and 38 shots, respectively. They have also allowed the fifth-lowest number of crosses into their penalty area, with 36 such crosses. Only City (18), Arsenal (28), Burnley (29), and Newcastle (31) have conceded fewer. Again, Chelsea have allowed the fewest passes into their final third, with only 63 passes entering their final third and 16 passes entering their penalty area, a metric in which they are second with only City (14) ahead of them. They have also allowed the 2nd fewest progressive passes against them in the league, with only 92 of such passes, and the 4th fewest shot-creating actions against them in the division. Chelsea have also allowed the second fewest progressive carries against them, 45 progressive carries, and the fewest carries in general in the league, 883. These statistics show Chelsea’s defending in the four games has largely been of the highest level, but why and how have they shipped five goals in four games so far this season?
CHELSEA’S PROBLEM
Mauricio Pochettino after the Nottingham Forest defeat: “This type of game will help us be more mature. It’s not only to have quality, it’s about competing in a different way. Of course, we were better, we cannot say we didn’t deserve more but the stats reflects what you do, we create but didn’t score, few shots on target, should be more. That is about the process. We were not lucky as I thought we deserved more against West Ham and today. A matter of time.”
The metrics above serve to show how solid their overall defense has been so far, but all five goals they have conceded this season were from momentary lapses of concentration. They were played through easily in the buildup to Luis Dias’ goal in the Liverpool game, and in the West Ham game, they conceded a goal from a James Ward-Prowse corner, where Nayef Aguerd rose unchallenged to head it home. A defensive mix-up allowed Antonio to latch on to score in that same game too, and a Moises Caicedo foul gave West Ham a penalty, from which they put the nail in the coffin for Chelsea in that game. Again against Forest, another defensive mix-up in possession allowed Forest to pounce, and Elanga converted the only goal of the game, condemning Chelsea to their second defeat in four games so far this season.
In terms of numbers, they are regularly up there with teams like City, Arsenal, Brighton, and Tottenham, but these teams are 1st, 5th, 6th, and 2nd on the Premier League table after the opening 4 games, and Chelsea is 12th on the league table with 4 points and only three points separating them from 18th-placed Everton.
Where then can the Blues improve?
First off, Chelsea have been terrible finishers this season. For a team that shoots a lot and holds on to possession, this is a big issue. Despite being joint fourth with Manchester City in shots attempted so far this season, Chelsea are 13th in terms of actual shots on target. They have found the target with 17/66 shots, a success rate of 25.8%, the third lowest in the league, putting them 17th in terms of accuracy rate. Misses like Jackson’s near-post shot vs. Liverpool after a lovely cross from Reece James, his header off target vs. West Ham after another cross from Chilwell Nottingham Forest, Colwill’s effort off target against West Ham, Chilwell, Enzo, Jackson, and Sterling against Nottingham Forest, and even against Luton, Enzo’s shot off target from just inside the penalty area. They have had chances to bury teams and have squandered them.
A quick scan of Chelsea’s shot map reveals a lot and confirms the statistics. They allow fewer shots and bar about 3–5 shots; almost all the shots they’ve faced this season are low quality shots. At the other end, however, we see exactly what the problem is. They have missed a lot of big chances so far this season, and they do not attack the 6-yard box enough, despite two of their five goals coming from just around the edge of this area. There have been very high-quality chances created centrally, and most of these have been missed.
This bad shot conversion rate, of course, carries into their xG performance. Chelsea have converted only five of the approximately eight goals they were expected to score. In terms of this xG underperformance, they rank 19th, just above Everton with -3.3 Goals — xG and below 18th-placed Manchester United, who have recorded an xG underperformance of -3.0.
We see from our plot above that Chelsea have the highest xG accumulated for teams that have scored below the league average of 6 goals, which tells us that, their predicament this season is not due to the lack of chances but more due to the poor conversion of those chances, an issue Mauricio Pochettino would be keen to fix.
Also, Chelsea players so far this season have been a bit loose on the ball. They have recorded the second most miscontrolled passes so far this season, and Chelsea players have been dispossessed the second most times in the league, with 47 dispossessions happening in 4 games. This has had an impact on chance and goal creation, but where this has hurt Chelsea the most is in the goals they’ve conceded, Caicedo, for example, failed to control a pass, allowing Nottingham to pounce for Elanga’s goal, and Disasi’s mix-up led to Antonio’s goal to send West Ham 2–1 up. Caicedo almost gifted another goal in the same game to West Ham's Fornals, who had his attempt saved by Sanchez. These instances of poor technical security on the ball have led to preventable goals conceded and potentially clear-cut chances successfully averted by opposition teams.
Pochettino after the Nottingham Forest defeat: “The process when you are with a team in an offesnive situation in a game like today, rash decisions and you need to be more calm. This happens and we need to stay calm and work hard to improve.”
Chelsea’s performances this season have been better than their position on the league table suggests; in fact, according to Understat’s Expected Points model, Chelsea should be third on the league table behind Manchester City and Arsenal, but instead, they find themselves nine places further down the log. There is still a lot of work to be done, especially offensively, where they need to be less profligate with chances. There is also a need for them to be better in terms of composure and concentration and avoid key errors that lead to goals. They have also lacked a consistent goalscorer this season, and that has shown in their opening games. Jackson has settled in nicely, but Chelsea may need him to start hitting the net a bit more often to add to his one goal so far this season and may require other players like Raheem Sterling and Madueke to step up to get goal involvements to help them in their bid to rise up the table to a respectable position based on their performances and they have a chance to do that on Sunday away from home against Bournemouth.
If you enjoyed this article, give this story a clap and let me know your opinion and thoughts on Chelsea’s season so far and if there are any suggestions you think may help this blog. You can also catch me on Twitter where we can engage in football discussions. You can also follow me here if you want to enjoy more football-related articles this season, as there will be more coming every Friday. If you are interested in the code used for my articles, check out my GitHub and I am open to any collaboration. Cheers, jeff.